New Zealand election 2023 live results: National takes strong lead; ‘nightmare’ for Labour, analyst says – latest updates | New Zealand election 2023

Foreign minister Nanaia Mahuta concedes

It’s pretty clear that Christopher Luxon will be prime minister, but not yet certain that he won’t need NZ First, Henry Cooke says.

The party vote has softened for National a bit in the last hour or so, from around 41.9% to 40.2%. They could easily slip under 40% once the special vote comes – that combined with the overhang (see earlier post) could mean the National-Act majority isn’t quite there or is so slim they don’t have the numbers to put forward a speaker from their own party.

The party vote for National has held steady in the 40s throughout the night which will be a surprise for them and a huge disappointment for Labour, Lamia Imam writes.

It seems Labour expected this election to be close based on polling and did not put in the work on ground to lock in the votes.

It might be because compared to National they did not have nearly as many funds nor did they have any big ticket policies that appealed to a broad audience.

Labour will be focused on the large number of MPs who will have lost out but the real losers of this election are going to be beneficiaries, low income families, public servants, young people wanting to buy their first homes, and those with illnesses requiring regular prescriptions.

Act leader David Seymour has arrived at his party’s headquarters, and is giving a speech. He said:

I’ve long said that getting elected is not an achievement it’s an opportunity to do good … For all of those people who wonder what the future will hold … it’s a future of real change … we believe that each person has a right to make a difference in their own lives.

National firmly in lead with 64.4% of votes counted

Snap analysis: great night for National – but they may yet need NZ First

Another update from Serena Solomon at National HQ:

Rima Nakhle just walked past, flanked by her supporters waving blue flags and chanting “We won.” Nakhle is National’s candidate for Takanini and looks to be pulling off “one of several surprises” of the night, said pollster and political blogger David Farrar.

She is clocking over 11,000 votes compared to incumbent Dr Anae Neru Leavasa, who is under 6,000 with 45% counted.

Nakhle echoed what a lot of people are saying that the polls didn’t capture the level of hunger for political change. She said this:

So many of us have been door-knocking for a very long time and we know what we are hearing on the doorsteps. I’ve said to people, just in the last few weeks, please, “Wait two weeks before you make that move to Australia.”

Many Kiwis have moved across the ditch for higher-paying jobs and cheaper living expenses. For example, Stuff reported that in the first quarter of the year about 31,000 more New Zealanders left for Australia than Australians moved to New Zealand.

Labour are doing so badly in so many safe electorates that some of their senior MPs in less safe electorates or list-only are actually safer than they would otherwise be, Henry Cooke says.

With a party result this bad it is quite easy to lose some real heavy hitters on the list, as the party’s smaller allocation of parliament is taken up by electorate winners in safe seats, some of whom might be quite junior.

But Labour’s array of losses mean they will have quite a few list MPs – including possible future leader Kieran McAnulty who will lose Wairarapa, and list candidates like finance minister Grant Robertson.

Even possible future stars like Camilla Belich look like they could just sneak in on the list.

National party maintains strong lead with more than 50% of vote counted

Winston Peters says his doubters are ‘not laughing now’

At Labour HQ, Charlotte Graham-McLay has just spoken to Leigh-Marama McLachlan, a correspondent for the TV show Marae, and a past columnist for the Guardian on Māori affairs. McLachlan said:

It’s not a surprise that the Māori Party have made some gains in the Māori electorates, most of the people standing for Te Pāti Māori this time around stood last time around. There’s a huge difference though, in how far they’ve come this time, leading on six of the seven seats at the moment.

This will be really upsetting to Labour. Some of the Labour party candidates in these seats are Labour MPs and have held these seats for a long time – some of them are in cabinet, and they’re being ousted by newcomer, grassroots Māori Party candidates. It’s a real sign of Māori dissatisfaction towards Labour – but they’re not going to go out and vote for National.

This is going to be pretty embarrassing for Labour, people who are huge names in Māori politics getting ousted. The Māori party have taken an unapologetically Māori stance, and read the pulse of Māori across Aotearoa: they want change.

An update on former cabinet minister Michael Wood, who had to resign as a minister in June over his failure to properly declare shares.

Some scenes from the National party event in Auckland:

An update from Charlotte Graham-McLay in Lower Hutt:

Labour HQ is filling up; prime minister Chris Hipkins is yet to arrive though.

People are trying to get into the spirit by cheering each time a Labour candidate pulls slightly ahead in a close race. Not a lot of MPs here yet – most of the attendees I’ve spoken to are the grassroots, door-knocking volunteers.

With 40% of the votes counted for Auckland Central, the incumbent MP Green party’s Chlöe Swarbrick looks to be holding on to her seat, Eva Corlett reports.

Before a crowd of party-faithfuls cheering her name, Swarbrick yelled “we did this”.

We work absolutely every single day to earn the trust and the privilege of representing our communities,” she said.

“Campaigns are a manifestation of hope, they are a movement to achieve all the things that all of us so deeply and profoundly believe in and they don’t end here.”

Te Pāti Māori candidates are leading in all six of the Māori electorates, Eva Corlett reports.

Morgan Godfery, a senior lecturer at the University of Otago and political columnist, told TVNZ the surge in support for the party in the Māori seats could have a significant impact on the election results.

For them to win six seats, seemingly out of the blue … is incredible and it will be crucial to how the government forms over the next few weeks.

If Te Pāti Māori has an overhang which is large enough to deprive National and Act of a majority, then [the election] could depend on Winston Peters.