Australia & World

The strategic response of the AUKUS contract is large and long-lasting

NSSometimes, You can see the geopolitical structural plate shifting in front of you. Suez in 1956, Nixon’s trip to China in 1972, and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 are examples of living memories.Last week’s unveiling ceremony Trilateral defense pact Introducing awkward acronyms between Australia, Great Britain and America AUKUS) Offers another of these rare opportunities.

AUKUS It envisions a wide range of diplomatic and technical cooperation, from cybersecurity to artificial intelligence, but at its core is talks to help Australia acquire a nuclear propulsion fleet (not nuclear weapons). It is an agreement to start. submarine.. One of the consequences is that Australia cancels the tens of billions of dollars worth of contracts signed with France for diesel electric submarines in 2016.Under announcement AUKUS On September 15, along with Australian and British Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Boris Johnson, President Joe Biden said it was about “investing in our alliance, our greatest source of power.” I emphasized. But France, America’s oldest ally, responded to understandable anger. Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called it “Stab from behind“. On September 17, President Emmanuel Macron withdrew the French ambassador from Washington and Canberra (not London).

Strong reverberation AUKUS Show the significant changes it represents. For America, it’s the most dramatic move ever in its determination to counter what it sees. Increasing threat from China, Especially the maritime challenges it poses In the pacific.. The United States is not only sharing the pinnacle of military technology, the propulsion plant for nuclear submarines, with its allies for the first time in 63 years (again, with the United Kingdom). It also underscores the long-term commitment to what is called the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific.”

Many countries in the region that share a sense of threat from China welcome it. AUKUS It provides a strong background for the first face-to-face meeting of quad leaders (USA, Australia, India, Japan) to be held in Washington, DC on September 24th. last month, Chaotic withdrawal Kabul talked about America’s lack of sustainability and the loss of trust among its allies. For all the wrath of Paris AUKUS Change that story. “The greater importance of this is that the United States is doubling its allies and its allies are doubling the United States,” said Michael Fullilove of the Sydney think tank Lowy Institute. “Unfortunately, France is collateral damage.”

In Australian eyes AUKUS It was mainly made in China.China’s pressure on Australia is the most striking recent example. response Calls for an independent investigation into the origin of covid-19 led to an urgent interest in how to push it back. Breaking the submarine contract with France was a bold move. The deal with the Naval Group, in which the French state holds a majority stake, suffered from rising costs and delays and had few friends among politicians and the press, but nevertheless it was in Australian history. Yes, it was widely thought that it was too big to dump. What the government is doing reflects both the size of its bet on the United States as an ally and the attractiveness of submarine technology it gains, despite the prospect of heavy fines: than that of diesel electricity. Much stealth and much longer distance.

Britain may not be the most important AUKUS Trio; Indeed, that role has been neglected in France’s decision not to recall the ambassador to London (Le Drian called Britain the “third wheel” of the deal).Still, for Mr Johnson, the deal is in his country Changing roles in the world.. It chimes conveniently with post-Brexit efforts to promote “Global Britain” (to be vigorously supported by the new foreign secretary, Liz Truss).And it gives substance to the comprehensively accepted “Indo-Pacific Inclination” Review of diplomatic and defense policies Published in March.

For the French AUKUS It embodies what they see as a profound reality of international affairs, especially the idea that more “strategic autonomy” is needed so that Europe does not become overly dependent on the United States.But the understated reaction between French European partners casts Familiar suspicion How serious such autonomy can be.After the news AUKUS German officials called for “consistency and unity” between Western nations and said it would take “great effort” to achieve it. France concludes that it will struggle with fair treatment in the face of the reflex that English-speaking allies will form a club together (the trilateral agreement is “Five Eyes” involving the same three countries, Canada and New Zealand. It’s on top of the Information Sharing Alliance). But France’s anger, especially towards Australia, is also triggered by a sense of personal betrayal.

It’s a pain in itself, beyond the huge loss of contract. France has an excellent store due to its role in the Indo-Pacific region, which has an army of about 7,000 and nearly 2 million citizens, including island regions such as New Caledonia and French Polynesia. It has enthusiastically built what it considered to be a closer relationship with Australia than ever before. Just recently on August 30, a communiqué from high-level ministerial talks between Australia and France talked about “the strength of our strategic partnership” across many areas and emphasized “the importance of future submarine programs”. bottom. But at that summit and at many other summits, AUKUS It was in the works that France notified it. The “six-month secret” was a “significant achievement,” said François Heisbourg, a French foreign policy expert who has long been involved in fostering ties with Australia through think tanks.

Fallout in France is one of several warnings to what would otherwise be a strategic coup for the three partners. AUKUS.. The government’s idea of ​​working with its allies to check China makes sense. However, large-scale divisions with major allies (allies with a serious interest in the Indo-Pacific) are of little use.Requires creative effort AUKUS A squad trying to mitigate the damage.

Second, this has something to say about American diplomacy. The French must have been upset, but their treatment was not graceful. In addition to the Biden administration’s poor handling of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. An example of foreign policy incompetence looks unfortunate. Two in a row look like a pattern. This is not a good sign for managing relations with China, including elements of cooperation such as military competition, economic laissez-faire, climate change and arms control.

Third, US foreign policy, including Mr. Biden, has often been criticized for overemphasizing the military side and not giving sufficient emphasis to diplomacy and other means. Nuclear submarine initiatives are a major defensive move, but China is becoming more and more powerful in the region in terms of economy and finance.China responded AUKUS By criticizing that “Cold War spirit”.The next day, I applied for participation CPTPPThe Pacific Rim Trade Agreement of 11 countries, which helped the United States incite as a way to limit China’s influence, was subsequently abandoned.

There is no quick solution to America’s mistakes in economic policy. Indeed, competition between China and the United States, along with its allies, will develop in many regions over the years. It is a decisive geopolitical challenge in the 21st century.And now AUKUS It has won a new landmark.

The strategic response of the AUKUS contract is large and long-lasting

Source link The strategic response of the AUKUS contract is large and long-lasting

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