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Is COVID normal and has it become a new variant every few months?

Rachel Pilch Loeb, a biostatistician at Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, said:

I used a syringe in a bottle at the Vaccination Center in London.credit:AP

Ultimately, according to experts, COVID-19 will be predictable within certain parameters, similar to today’s influenza.

“When influenza generally begins to spread, we sometimes have better and sometimes worse vaccines, but what we need to do to keep them up to date and keep deaths and hospitalizations low. I know, “said Myers.

In the case of COVID-19, its manageable state is still a few years away.

For now, “new normality” is uncertainty, says Piltch-Loeb. “We can still get caught by this virus with flat feet.”

The COVID-19 test tent is located near Grand Central Terminal in New York City.

The COVID-19 test tent is located near Grand Central Terminal in New York City. credit:AP

The first two roads

There are two potential routes for COVID-19 to reach a predictable pattern. They both end up in the same place, but one involves far more suffering and death.

The ideal scenario is that vaccination protects a large number of people and reduces the chances of the virus evolving.

At a press conference last week, President Biden said the number of unprotected people, including everyone who gets new, usually vaccine booster shots, should be reduced.

“If there is no place for the virus to spread, there is no opportunity to mutate and spawn new variants,” said David Souleles, director of the COVID-19 response team at the University of California, Irvine.

Another method allows millions of people to get sick and kill until the virus burns out a poorly vaccinated population and develops innate immunity with few infected people.

“Historically, that was the way the pandemic was solved, but it had a huge impact on the population,” said Deborah, a microbiologist at the University of Washington School of Medicine in Seattle and head of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Translation Medicine. Fuller says.

Currently, about 55% of humanity is immunized, but coverage is inadequate. Much of North America and Europe are vaccinated, but most of Africa is unvaccinated.

“We are still looking at the prospects for years before we see the vaccines needed to prevent new variants from coming,” said Pilch Loeb.

In any case, the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 continues to mutate and evolve.

“That’s exactly what the virus does,” Fuller said.

After all, a pandemic declines when a sufficient number of people are immunized by either a previous infection or vaccination.

Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic Vaccine Research Group, said what happened in the 1918 influenza pandemic, but not before it infected one-third of the world’s population and killed at least 50 million people. was.

“The reality of the repertoire virus is endemic with regular epidemics,” he said.

Dr. Roger Shapiro of Harvard Medical School, who works in Botswana, South Africa, where the Omicron variant was first discovered, said it is now much like dealing with the cold and flu seasons.

We can prepare for the future: Rochelle Walensky, Head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

We can prepare for the future: Rochelle Walensky, Head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.credit:AP

“We will probably have a long COVID season in the United States and around the world,” he said. “I think we’ve come to the point where we can say,’This is easy to handle.'”

Manageable does not mean that it disappears. The illness is rarely completely gone. The disease circulates more mildly or is less susceptible to infection. The threat is still there, even if it’s not as serious as the first outbreak.

Poland, the editor-in-chief of the journal Vaccine, states that the 1918 influenza bug (known in the medical community as the H1N1 strain) is mutated and not fatal, but still very common.

“When I was vaccinated against the flu this year, one of the strains in the shot was for H1N1,” he said.

There are optimistic reasons. Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said COVID-19 is far from predictable and containable, but our ability to fight it is far superior.

“One thing has been revealed in the last 20 months,” she said. “We can’t predict the future, but we can prepare for it.”

USA Today

Is COVID normal and has it become a new variant every few months?

Source link Is COVID normal and has it become a new variant every few months?

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