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How close all AFL clubs are to a flag, Fox Footy trading day

Some clubs are at least five year away from challenging, while others are capable of dynasties.

But for several teams, their chances of winning a flag are unclear or appear slim.

On Fox Footy’s Trading Day, dual premiership Kangaroo David King and dual All-Australian Leigh Montagna assessed how close every AFL club is to a premiership.

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ADELAIDE CROWS

David King says: “They’re closer to the start of a rebuild than the end, but I like what they’re doing and where they’re going. If you look at the last four years, they’ve taken 18 picks in the national draft, they’ve taken 11 of those in the top 30 – that’s the second-most in the competition, so they’re getting these picks in. The question is: Are they the quality of player that is going to drive this club up the table and shape games? You’ve got to look at the core of a rebuild: Thilthorpe and Schoenberg I really like, McAsey, Jones and Fogarty are the three I’m unsure about with their ceilings. I still think they’re premiership window is another four to five years away and can spike up meaningfully.”

Leigh Montagna says: “The reason you want to get so many bits of young talent, everyone develops at a different rate. There’s still question marks about Chayce Jones or Fischer McAsey, but everyone grows at a different rate. Some hit the ground running like a Sam Walsh, some take a bit more time. They’re building nicely, but they’re still another few years away.”

Premiership window: 2026-2030

Jordan Dawson headed to Crows for 1st | 00:29

BRISBANE LIONS

Leigh Montagna says: “They’re in a pretty healthy spot. They finished top four the last three years and with their list profile, they’re in the sweet spot. They need to be trying to win a flag in the next three years. They’ll be bitterly disappointed if they don’t win a premiership with this list they’ve compiled.”

Premiership window: 2022-2025

CARLTON

David King says: “To me they’re only 40 games away. They got so much right in the 2015 draft that they’re really only looking for those additional midfielders or those peripheral players. The spine we all keep talking about … they desperately need Charlie Curnow fit in that forward line and it changes everything. They’ve had the third fewest draft picks over the last four years – only 14 picks, seven of those inside the top 30 – so I question whether the absolute star factor is around the edges. But this list when you look at those that are 26 to 27 years of age, they’re going to shape how quickly this comes together.

Leigh Montagna says: “I think their list profile is going beautifully and nearly all the players on the list have some upside. Next season they should be playing finals with the list they’ve got and from there they should be looking to be in that premiership window. If Vossy can turn that culture around and do what Simon Goodwin did at Melbourne, anything’s possible.”

Premiership window: 2024-2027

Cerra granted wish in chaotic trade day | 01:43

COLLINGWOOD

David King says: “The problem for Craig McRae is they’re still really well stocked for talent. The guys who are 29-plus and are their really good senior core leaders, they lead the way admirably and then they have solid core between 24 and 29, They could win a lot of home and away games of football next year, which in effect kills your draft stocks, but it really sets up well to show these younger kids what’s required at top AFL level. It’s time to settle this football club down and say ‘let’s enjoy the reset period‘. They may make some moves at the end of next year, they may lose some players and free agents. Next year is a big end of season for them and that’ll have a major bearing on what their window looks like, but I think they’re marginally in front of the Adelaide Crows in terms of their rebuild.”

Leigh Montagna says: “I hope they’re pragmatic and realistic with where they’re at. I think they are in a rebuild for a number of years. They’ve got a long way to go because they’ve got to phase out their stars while they‘re trying to acquire some draft talent. We know they’re going to get Daicos this year, but they’re not getting in a cluster of picks. They’re still a work in progress.”

Premiership window: 2026-2030

ESSENDON

Leigh Montagna says: “I really like the way they’re going. I think the way they’re tracking with that strong core and I love the system Ben Rutten has got them playing and we know they’re potent on offence, I think their patience will pay off. They’ll play finals again next year I would expect then if they can go to free agency or trade period and lure a big key forward, which is the one piece they’re missing, their premiership window is well and truly open. I know it’s been a long wait for Essendon fans, but when they do hit the window in about 24 months time, I think it’s open for a while.”

David King says: “I think 2023 is a fraction early for me. I still think they’re 40 games away from having the pieces together to push for a flag, but they’re making all the right decisions like going back to the draft last year. In the end, the exodus of Daniher, Fantasia and Saad have propelled this club forward five years. They don’t need to do anything radical.”

Premiership window: 2023-2027

Bobby Hill fails to land Essendon move! | 02:39

FREMANTLE

David King says: “I don’t know when their premiership contention period actually is. I think they’re stuck in no man’s land. They’ve got Fyfe and Mundy, who’ve been so good for this football club across the journey, but that next block of players – 23 to 28 years of age – are they good enough to take control and bridge the gap on the competition? The next layer down like Brayshaw and Serong, they’re certainly there. But they’ve lost Cerra now. The honeymoon period is gone for the coach now, so it’s time now to play complimentary football, not just defend then attack. I don’t have the answer on their window and I’m worried about life post Fyfe.”

Leigh Montagna says: “They’ve just got to be patient because this year they’ll acquire essentially five top-20 picks with Jordan Clark and Will Brodie being top 20 picks plus three inside 20. They’re building a core, but they’re still just a little bit off and they need to be acquiring some more talent.”

Premiership window: King says it’s unknown

GEELONG CATS

Leigh Montagna says: “I love they keep going to the well and having a crack every year. They’re doing it and they’ve been a victim of their own success for the last 15 years that they can’t go to the draft, so they’re doing as best they can. If you’re a Geelong fan you know every year you’re giving yourself the best chance to win a premiership.”

David King says: “They’ve barely had a top 15 draft pick for five years – and the one they did have just walked out the door. So something has to shift. In terms of winning it, they’ve got to be able to leapfrog these teams now that have gone past them. They’re losing some players now, which is my reservation … It’s in effect getting harder for them right now. In my opinion they’ve got one last chance. It might run aground next year, it might take another 18 months, but you’ve got to back these guys in like Dangerfield, Hawkins, Selwood and Smith. But I think the cliff is coming, it’s going to be a severe cliff.”

Premiership window: 2022-2023

‘They gave up nothing to get him’ | 01:16

GOLD COAST SUNS

Leigh Montagna says: “When you look at their list profile, all their young talent are all 25 or younger and all their role players are 25-plus. It’s all or nothing for this young group. If they can stick together, they can do something special. They have to find a way to hold onto this young group and if they do, this young, talented Under 25 bunch can spike really quickly. They’ve just got to keep them all, because if they lose Lukosius or Rankine or King, it starts all over again.”

David King says: “I’m backing Stuart Dew in. I’m one of the very few that‘s actually going to ride him all the way. I think this club is ready to go. They had some patches this year where they played some reasonable football but the improvement is not going to be gradual, it’s going to go bang. I’m bullish about them next year.”

Premiership window: 2024-2029

GWS GIANTS

David King says: “The next wave is upon us. I think they’re right in it for the next couple of flags, these guys. They’ve got a young backline that was thrown to the wolves last year through circumstance and they stood up. The last four years, they’ve drafted a lot of players and 12 of those have been top 30 selections. I think they can win it next year. They had a horror run this year being out of home for half the year on the road, hardly played home games, injuries everywhere. They can win it next year.”

Premiership window: 2022-2026

Hawks’ grand trade plan backfires! | 05:20

HAWTHORN

Leigh Montagna says: “They had a couple of good years there (in 2018 and 2019), which was a bit unexpected when they played finals and finished high on the ladder, but they’re now in the rebuild. I like their list profile and think it’s in a much healthier state than people give them credit for, including one of the most exciting backlines in the competition. The midfield is all around 28, so it’s not like their best football is behind them. I think they’re developing quite nicely. With this team, let’s see how good a coach Sam Mitchell is and whether he can get them into finals in the next two to three years like they expect.”

David King says: “If you look at the previous four years, they’ve had four picks inside the top 30 – clearly the lowest across the competition. At some point it has to correct. There’s three in this year’s draft under 30, but they’re going to need another six in the next two years. They’ve got to go again and get that glut in over the next 12 months.”

Premiership window: 2025-2029

MELBOURNE

David King says: “The guns are young, so the Dees are going nowhere. They’ve had 14 national draft picks over the last four years, but what they’ve done is nailed all their picks. They’re going to enjoy the spoils for a number of years. They’re probably looking at trying to grab another two premierships in the next four to five years and really cash in. I think they’ve got a thirst to replicate the euphoria of winning a Grand Final.”

Premiership window: 2022 onwards

Draft: Why Horne-Francis will go No.1 | 01:45

NORTH MELBOURNE

Leigh Montagna says: “We’re all pretty understanding of where North Melbourne are at in that early stage of a rebuild. They just need to continue to acquire more talent … but they’ve still got a few years to go. They’ve still got to phase out their veterans they’ve relied on for so long. So sit tight, be patient and hopefully bear the fruits of it down the track.“

Premiership window: 2026-30

PORT ADELAIDE

Leigh Montagna says: We know they’re in the window, but for how long? For me it’s cliff or conquer. Are they going to fall off the cliff next year once Boak, Robbie Gray, Charlie Dixon, Tom Jonas and these stars move on? Are they going to fall off a cliff and miss out on their opportunity or can that next wave live up to expectations and become stars of the competition? If they can do that, I think their list build is really nice. If they don’t win it next year, it might be too late for Boak and Gray and Dixon, but I think they are set up for a sustained period. I can see them being a top-four challenger for the next five years.”

David King says: “Their young kids are stars. They’re going to go to the next level and drive this midfield and become 25-diospiosal players and have maximum damage.“

Premiership window: 2022-2027

Fool’s gold trading | 01:47

RICHMOND

Leigh Montagna says: “Absolutely they can win another flag. They had a short pre-season and came off that significant success and had some injuries, but I think they’ve got another premiership left in them in the next two years. While they’ve still got Prestia and Lambert and Cotchin and Dusty and Riewoldt, they’ve got a good enough young core, if they can stay hungry and healthy – and we know their system stacks up – I can see them contending again.”

David King says: “They’re a club that’s really settled. They had an off year, they knew exactly where they were all year. You felt the finish of the year had to come quickly for them and it did.”

Premiership window: 2022-2023

ST KILDA

Leigh Montagna says: “it’s a strange one because their list profile is for the now but I don’t think they’re good enough now. So I think they need to step back a little bit, go to the draft, find some more talent and have a bit of patience. I think they overreached and were trying to be a bit optimistic by going and grabbing Hannebery and Hill and Crouch when they probably weren’t ready, so now they need to take some time. The problem is it leaves them with only a small window, because in two or three years time their best players are going to be closer to 30. They’ve got themselves in this pickle and they’ll need everything to go right for them to win a premiership in the next few years.”

David King says: “They don’t have a window, I’m sorry. This has been a construct that no one else would’ve put together. I couldn’t be as bullish on this list or contending in two years time as what others are. Where are their stars coming from? Where are their top-liners coming from? We’ve been sold that next year was their year, but they can’t keep sending letters every year. If next year is your year, let’s see it. I don’t believe it’s there, I really don’t. It’s a bit harsh to say, but they’ve had four top-30 picks in the last four years, so there’s a void coming that’s chasing these 27 and 28-year-olds. If they’re not contending in the next two years, the gap arrives and you end up on the never-ending rebuild treadmill.”

Premiership window: 2024-2026

Hewett offically becomes a Blue | 00:56

SYDNEY SWANS

Leigh Montagna says: “It was a real spike this season, we didn‘t expect how well they would go. The real question is, does their trajectory continue? I’m just wondering, while they’ve still got their ageing veterans in Franklin, Kennedy, Rampe, Hickey and Parker’s still in his prime, can they potentially jag a premiership in the next two seasons? It’s two windows; it’s a small window while they’ve got their veterans, and if they can’t, I think they’ve got to be patient and build their next flag around Logan McDonald, Blakey, Campbell, Gulden, McCartin and Rowbottom etc.”

Premiership window: 2022-23, 2026-30

WEST COAST EAGLES

David King says: “They can be Carlton in 1995. This is their one last chance, this is it. They‘ve got ageing players we talk about all the time; Kennedy, Nic Nat, Shuey, Hurn, Sheppard, Cripps, McGovern, they’ll all be 30-plus by April. So there’s a concern there, we all know that. In 2021, Shuey played seven games. Yeo played 12, Ryan 14, McGovern and Hurn missed six or seven games, Barrass the same, so they haven’t been fit as a football club for the best part of two years. They were unfit by their own decisions I think through the hubs in 2020; a solid pre-season, a full pre-season, no shortcuts, no excuses. They were 1-8 vs top eight teams, so they’ve got some ground to make up. Talent’s not a problem, the talent’s there, but they’re ageing; do they still have the desire? I think they do, they’ve got a one-year window for me. It might run aground at Round 10, it might run aground at Round 18, or it might fuel itself and it might take them all the way.”

Premiership window: 2022

Petrevski-Seton eyes midfield return | 00:49

WESTERN BULLDOGS

David King says: “This list build has been perfect. I think they’ve got the biggest window in the competition right now. You look at their list profile and on every line there’s a star in every age bracket. They’ve nailed their first-round picks for years, so it’s allowed them to take some risks with their trading and I think it’s served them really well. They’re going to be in this window for a long time, so I don’t think one or two draft picks over the next couple of years will really impact what this group’s going to be able to do for six to eight years. If they don’t win two premierships in the next six years, it’s a blown opportunity.”

Leigh Montagna says: “They were 19 points up in the third quarter of the Grand Final, you give Tim English and Jordon Sweet another 12 months and another pre-season to develop, give them a bit of faith and confidence to develop. I think they’ll be OK without that extra ruckman. When you do get in the window, history shows you do get the chance to play in multiple Grand Finals.”

Premiership window: 2022 onwards

How close all AFL clubs are to a flag, Fox Footy trading day Source link How close all AFL clubs are to a flag, Fox Footy trading day

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