Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a narrow two-point lead over Republican Donald Trump following President Joe Biden’s decision to end his re-election campaign and endorse her, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll. This marks a shift from last week’s poll, which showed Biden trailing Trump by two points before his announcement on Sunday.
The new poll, conducted on Monday and Tuesday, came after the Republican National Convention, where Trump officially accepted the nomination, and Biden’s announcement of his departure from the race in support of Harris.
Harris, who has secured the Democratic nomination, leads Trump 44% to 42% in the national poll, a margin within the 3-percentage-point margin of error. Previous polls showed Harris and Trump tied at 44% in mid-July and Trump leading by one point in early July, both within the margin of error.
National polls provide important insights into candidate support, but the U.S. Electoral College ultimately decides the election, with a few key states playing a crucial role.
A pollster from Trump’s campaign downplayed the increase in Harris’ support, attributing it to the extensive media coverage of her new candidacy. “That bump is likely to start showing itself over the next few days and will last for a while,” said Tony Fabrizio in a memo. Despite this, the poll showed no evidence of a post-convention bump for Trump.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights the reasoning behind Biden’s withdrawal and Harris’ nomination.
HARRIS SEEN AS SHARPER THAN BIDEN, TRUMP
Approximately 56% of registered voters believe Harris, 59, is “mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges,” compared to 49% for Trump, 78. Only 22% felt this way about Biden, 81, who ended his campaign after a debate with Trump where he appeared to struggle.
Around 80% of Democratic voters view Biden favorably, compared to 91% for Harris. Three-quarters of Democratic voters believe the party should unite behind Harris, while only a quarter think multiple candidates should compete for the nomination.
In a hypothetical three-way race including independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris leads Trump 42% to 38%, with Kennedy receiving 8%. However, Kennedy has yet to qualify for the ballot in many states ahead of the November 5 election.
Harris campaigned in Wisconsin on Tuesday, gaining support from major party figures. Attention is now on her choice for a running mate.
Many voters are unfamiliar with potential vice-presidential candidates. About one in four registered voters have never heard of U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who had the highest favorability rating among potential running mates at 37%. One in three have not heard of California Governor Gavin Newsom, and about half are unfamiliar with Arizona Senator Mark Kelly and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear.
The online poll surveyed 1,241 U.S. adults nationwide, including 1,018 registered voters.
